Key Insights
- Tesla shares dropped 7% ahead of its Q2 deliveries report, with analysts forecasting a year-over-year decline in vehicle deliveries.
- Elon Musk reignited a feud with Donald Trump, criticizing the pro-Trump “One Big Beautiful Bill” that may slash EV and renewable energy incentives.
NEW YORK (MarketsXplora) Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) shares fell 7% from Friday’s close of $323.63 to $300.71 on Tuesday, as investor caution mounted ahead of the electric vehicle maker’s second-quarter deliveries report and broader political tensions stirred uncertainty.
Wall Street analysts expect the company to report Q2 deliveries of approximately 387,000 vehicles — a 13% year-over-year decline compared to nearly 444,000 units delivered in the same period last year, according to a consensus compiled by FactSet. Prediction market platform Kalshi, speaking to CNBC, said traders anticipate even lower figures at around 364,000.
Tesla’s stock had recently seen momentum after the company launched a limited robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in late June. CEO Elon Musk had also touted the firm’s first “driverless delivery” of a vehicle to a customer in the city. However, optimism was short-lived.
Musk’s feud with Trump weighs on Tesla shares
The turnaround in Tesla’s stock trajectory began after Musk on Saturday reignited a public spat with former President Donald Trump over the controversial One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The legislation, which Trump endorsed and is now nearing a final vote in the House, proposes major shifts in U.S. federal spending priorities.
While Musk refrained from directly criticizing the bill’s planned cuts to programs such as Medicaid and food assistance, he voiced strong opposition on X, saying the measure would balloon the U.S. deficit and raise the debt ceiling. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated the bill’s tax cuts alone would add approximately $3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade.
Particularly concerning for Tesla, the proposed legislation includes provisions to phase out federal tax credits for electric vehicles and slash funding for renewable energy development — both of which have been crucial to Tesla’s growth. According to think tank Energy Innovation, the changes could lead to an annual decline of roughly 100,000 EV sales by 2035. It also projected that more than 350 cumulative gigawatts of renewable energy development could be lost, potentially hurting Tesla’s Energy division, which sells solar and battery storage systems to utilities and clean energy developers.
Regulatory incentives in spotlight
Responding to Musk’s criticism, Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday that the Tesla CEO is “upset that he’s losing his EV mandate,” adding that Musk “could lose a lot more than that.” Trump was referring to the network of subsidies, incentives, and federal contracts that have supported Musk’s various ventures.
According to data from FedScout, which tracks federal spending and contracting, SpaceX — another Musk-led company — has received over $22 billion in U.S. government contracts since 2008. These include deals with NASA, the U.S. Air Force, and the Space Force.
Tesla itself has reported $11.8 billion in revenue from the sale of automotive regulatory credits since 2015, based on financial filings evaluated by FedScout CEO Geoff Orazem. These credits, mandated by state and federal laws that require automakers to sell a portion of low-emission vehicles or purchase credits from compliant companies like Tesla, have served as a significant profit driver.
In fact, revenue from regulatory credits made up around 60% of Tesla’s net income in the second quarter of 2024 — a figure that underscores the company’s reliance on environmental incentives that may soon be scaled back.