Standard Chartered Analysts Bullish on Bitcoin: Forecasts $120,000 by 2024

Key Insights

• Standard Chartered raises its 2024 bitcoin forecast to $120,000.
• The initial prediction of $100,000 made in April gets a 20% upside revision, reflecting increased optimism.
• The rationale behind the revised forecast is that miners would need to sell fewer bitcoins.

Standard Chartered, the renowned financial institution, has revised its bitcoin forecast for 2024, projecting a staggering value of $120,000 for the leading cryptocurrency. This bold prediction comes on the heels of an optimistic outlook, as Standard Chartered initially set a target of $100,000 by the end of 2024 back in April.

However, Geoff Kendrick, one of the bank’s esteemed foreign exchange analysts, now believes there is a 20% upside potential to that previous projection.

The rationale behind the revised bitcoin forecast

Kendrick’s rationale behind this revised forecast lies in the recent surge in bitcoin prices, which he suggests could incentivize bitcoin miners to hoard more of the digital asset. According to Kendrick’s analysis, increased profitability per bitcoin mined enables miners to sell fewer coins while maintaining a steady inflow of cash.

This reduced selling of newly minted bitcoins ultimately leads to a decrease in the net supply of bitcoins and, in turn, exerts upward pressure on their prices.

Despite the remarkable 80% surge in bitcoin’s price since the start of the year, the current level of just over $30,200 remains significantly below its previous peak of $69,000 in November 2021.

The crypto sector endured a tumultuous 2022, with trillions of dollars being wiped out as central banks raised interest rates and several crypto firms, including the FTX exchange, faced crises.

However, the collapse of several traditional-style banks this year has fueled a remarkable rebound in the crypto market.

Standard Chartered’s 2024 Bitcoin forecast is based on miner’s behavior

Standard Chartered’s prediction of a substantial price rise is rooted in the notion that miners, responsible for producing approximately 900 new bitcoins daily worldwide, will soon need to sell fewer coins to cover their operational costs, primarily electricity consumption for powering their supercomputers.

Kendrick estimates that miners have recently been selling 100% of their freshly minted bitcoins. However, if the price were to reach $50,000, it is anticipated that miners would likely sell only 20-30% of their coins, significantly reducing the daily supply.

To put this into perspective, should the price surge to $50,000, miners would decrease their daily bitcoin sales from the current 900 to a range of 180-270 coins.

Over the course of a year, this would result in a reduction of miner selling from 328,500 to a range of 65,700-98,550 bitcoins, effectively shrinking the net supply by approximately 250,000 bitcoins annually.

It’s worth noting that lofty valuations have been a common theme during bitcoin’s previous rallies.

In November 2020, a Citi analyst boldly suggested that bitcoin could climb as high as $318,000 by the end of 2022. However, the reality proved less favorable, as bitcoin closed out the year with a decline of around 65% at $16,500.”

What is happening with bitcoin now

The largest cryptocurrency began 2023 with positive dynamics – already in mid-April, BTC was worth more than $19,000, which was the maximum since November 2022.

In April, bitcoin surged to $29,000, marking a 10-month high, while in early July, it surpassed $31,000, reaching a new yearly peak.

Overall, the price of BTC has grown by 80% since the beginning of the year, with its current level standing at $30,346 at the time of writing.

However, this is still less than half of BTC’s November 2021 high of $69,000.

Read also: Bitcoin (BTC) Outperforms the Nasdaq and S&P 500 Indices

What can go wrong?

While the upcoming BTC halving can  contribute to Bitcoin price increase, the current macroeconomic and geopolitical climate, however, will make it difficult for it to grow.

Persistent regulatory pressure continues to weigh on the crypto industry, leading to diminished interest and compelling numerous companies to scale back operations or relocate.

Moreover, the waning enthusiasm from institutional investors has the potential to exert downward pressure on the price of BTC.

What do you think about Standard Chartered’s revised forecast of $120,000 for Bitcoin by 2024? Let us know in the comments.