Key Insights
- IMF lowered Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2024 to 3.0% from 3.1% projected in October
- Revision part of broader sub-Saharan Africa outlook downgrade on persisting supply constraints
- Global growth seen picking up from 2.9% in 2022 to 3.1% in 2024, but IMF warned of risks like high inflation, trade fragmentation
ABUJA (MarketsXplora) – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its 2024 growth projection for Nigeria’s economy to 3.0% from 3.1% forecast in October, according to the lender’s latest World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday.
The IMF pointed to a generally weaker outlook for sub-Saharan Africa, where growth is seen slowing to 3.8% this year from an estimated 3.3% in 2023, held back by lingering supply constraints.
The October growth projection for the region in 2024 was 4.0%. The IMF also downgraded South Africa’s 2024 GDP growth view by 0.8 percentage point, citing increasing transportation issues dragging on output.
“The downward revision for 2024 of 0.2 percentage point from October 2023 mainly reflects a weaker projection for South Africa,” the global lender said.
Risks remain tilted to the downside, the IMF warned, highlighting potential flare-ups in global commodity prices should geopolitical tensions worsen and risks of prolonged high inflation forcing central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer.
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The Washington-based fund foresees global growth picking up from 2.9% last year to 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025 on easing price pressures and supply issues.
But it cautioned that growth could suffer from entrenched inflation pressures and market volatility should policy tightening overshoot.
The IMF also emphasized concerns about the world’s major economies separating into competing trade blocs, projecting slower trade expansion of 3.3% this year and 3.6% next year amid a surge in trade restrictions.
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Nearly 3,000 new trade curbs were implemented in 2022 alone, nearly triple the number imposed in 2019, IMF data showed.