Key Insights
- Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in August and hit $100,000 by U.S. election day in November.
- The forecast is based on Joe Biden remaining in the presidential race, which is seen as favoring a Trump victory and positively impacting Bitcoin.
- An alternative scenario where Biden withdraws could see Bitcoin prices drop to $50,000-$55,000.
NEW YORK (MarketsXplora) – Standard Chartered Bank has forecast that Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high in August and surge to $100,000 by the U.S. presidential election in November, according to a statement from the bank’s head of forex and digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, on Tuesday.
Kendrick’s bullish prediction is contingent on President Joe Biden remaining in the presidential race, a scenario he believes the market interprets as favoring a victory for former President Donald Trump.
“A fresh all-time high for bitcoin in August is likely, then $100,000 by U.S. election day,” Kendrick stated, adding that Trump is perceived as “bitcoin-positive.”
He noted a positive correlation between Trump’s electoral odds and Bitcoin’s price, explaining, “The logic here is that both regulation and mining would be looked at more favorably under Trump.”
Biden withdrawal could see Bitcoin prices drop to $50,000
However, Kendrick also modeled an alternative “least likely” scenario where Biden withdraws from the race in late July. In this case, he projects Bitcoin could dip to the $50,000-$55,000 range. He elaborated that if Biden’s Democratic replacement is a highly credible candidate, such as Michelle Obama, “bitcoin prices will stay soft.”
The analyst emphasized August 4 as a crucial date for Biden’s candidacy, citing Ohio law that requires presidential candidates to be registered by this date. “If Biden is still the Democratic nominee on August 4, he will still be so in the first week of November,” Kendrick explained.
Kendrick reaffirmed his earlier predictions for Bitcoin’s price, maintaining his year-end forecast of $150,000 and end-of-2025 projection of $200,000. He noted that a $150,000 price by the end of 2024 would elevate Bitcoin to the “$3 trillion club” in terms of market capitalization, following NVIDIA’s recent achievement of a $3 trillion market cap.
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading flat over the past 24 hours at $62,207, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
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