Key Insights
- Steno Research predicts $15-20 billion net inflows for spot ether ETFs in the first year, potentially driving ether’s price to $6,500.
- The report suggests the market is underestimating the impact of ether ETFs, with Steno’s forecast surpassing other analysts’ predictions.
- Ether’s lower market cap and liquidity compared to bitcoin could lead to a greater price impact from ETF inflows.
LONDON (MarketsXplora) – The cryptocurrency market may be underestimating the potential impact of the upcoming launch of spot ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States, according to a report released by Steno Research on Thursday.
The research firm forecasts net inflows of $15 billion to $20 billion in the first year of trading, despite expected outflows from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE). This influx of capital could drive ether’s value to at least $6,500 later this year, the report suggests.
“The market appears overly pessimistic about ether ETFs,” said Mads Eberhardt, senior analyst at Steno Research. “Ether’s unique qualities are likely to appeal to Wall Street investors, potentially leading to significant inflows.”
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) greenlighted filings from issuers last month, paving the way for spot ether ETFs to begin trading as early as next week, pending S-1 filing approvals.
Steno’s bullish outlook surpasses predictions from other market observers. Galaxy Research anticipates $5 billion in net inflows over the first five months, while asset manager Bitwise projects $15 billion over 18 months.
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The report also predicts a strengthening of the ether/bitcoin ratio to 0.065 later this year, citing ether’s lower market capitalization and liquidity compared to bitcoin.
“A smaller inflow into ether ETFs compared to bitcoin ETFs will have a greater impact on ether due to its lower market capitalization and substantially poorer liquidity,” Eberhardt explained. “This dynamic makes ether ETF inflows more likely to surprise to the upside.”